Liberalism sucks, let’s secede
It seems that every time a Democrat ascends to the White House, Republicans, specifically the self-proclaimed conservative and patriot breed, declare that it’s time to secede from the Union. Unsurprisingly, the latest yelping is coming out of Texas. Politico has a good piece on all this, with the view that for all the bitter division we as a Nation are not near the divide of 1860. Richard Kreitner, the author of a recent book about the history of American disunity, Break it Up argues that unlike pre-Civil War America today’s secessionist talk falls along rural/urban lines rather than along State borders. While technically true I’d argue that the rural/urban divide was also true of the secessionist talk that led directly to the Civil War. The biggest difference between today and the early to mid-1800s is that 160 years ago the large, industrial urban areas were mostly concentrated in the North while the open, rural areas where mostly located in the South. Today, large, industrial and corporate urban areas are spread relatively evenly along coasts and throughout the South, with a good scattering well into the Midwest. If you focus on just the largest metropolitan areas you get New York in the Northeast; Chicago in the upper Midwest; San Diego, Los Angeles, the Bay Area, and Seattle on the West Coast; and Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston sitting between South and West. The biggest difference with today’s distribution is that each of these metropolitan areas are all relatively the same with regard to industry and business interests, erasing the 19th century’s regional economic divide.
Even in today’s much more mixed State level demographics, an arrangement wherein urban centers lean Democratic and contain the bulk of a State’s population while the far less populated rural areas skew heavily toward Republicans, a new Civil War is a far more likely scenario than I think many give credence to. Take Illinois, my home State, and look at how the votes in this past election are distributed. Aside from the Chicago area, the college town pockets of Bloomington and Urbana-Champaign, and four other counties, the entire State voted for Trump. In a Civil War scenario Illinois would most likely follow Virginia’s example and split in two. You’d have the State of Chicago (or, perhaps North or East Illinois), which would most likely consist of the city itself and the surrounding suburban areas, and the State of Illinois (or, South or West Illinois). Put into perspective, however, if you take the entire Chicago metropolitan area as a State unto itself you’d have a State of around 9.5 million people, leaving the rest of Illinois with a population of a little over 3.1 million. Goes a long way to explain why the city of Chicago has such influence in Springfield.
So, while modern American demographics have shifted to be much more an urban/rural divide I don’t believe that that is as much a deterrent as others believe in making a new Civil War feasible. Considering how concentrated Democratic and Republican voters have become I’d bet that while messy, a new Civil War would break out along these city/rural boundaries. Sure, fronts would be all over the place, and the fighting would be mainly concentrated at the metropolitan border regions, which in some States would mean multiple fronts (think California), but none of this is something most people would be concerned with. For those agitating for secession how to fight such a distributed and messy war would be left up to the military leaders. Of course, there are areas of the country that I still expect to fight along State and regional borders, specifically New England (though Maine might side with the Republican secessionists).
Another point made is that no leader wants to really push secession for fear of losing business dollars; the taxes company’s bring, employees and the subsequent economic benefits. Hogwash. When it comes to ideals, passions, and the religious ferocity they take on no amount of financial incentive is going to deter a true believer from pursuing personal folly and taking their followers with them (see Trump).
No, the secessionist talk this time around doesn’t have the stink of fringe politics, something to be safely ignored as it fades away a few weeks after inauguration. Sadly, it has the strong scent of reality, of something people really do want. Not as a political bludgeon to wield in D.C., to be used as the ultimate weapon in getting what one wants, but as a rallying cry for those who see their privilege being eroded, being twisted and taken away. As I’ve written previously, this is just perception, the belief of people indoctrinated in a Party that sees all issues as zero sum when in fact reality presents a much different calculus. The winners and losers understanding of political life pushed forth by the Republican Party has taken firm root, a leading cause of Trump, Trumpism and the MAGA rebellion.
Sadly, those who could (and often do) benefit from a more generous, supportive Federal Government are those who rail against it the most. The people who’ve benefited from farm subsidies, who live in States that refuse to expand Medicaid and SNAP access but who have no health insurance and can barely afford to put food on the table or pay their rent, those who lack higher education, those who do have college degrees but have found themselves locked out of a rapidly changing job market. These are the people who routinely show up in news stories raging against the Windmill of Big Government, raging against the idea that by giving a marginalized group equal footing in society and under the law they somehow lose. They have been radicalized against the liberalism of the Founders, against the clearly visible path the Founders set for the country. A path that leads to greater equality for all, a society of individuals that work with each other, that demand the same of government, an economy that values individuals and their work over large companies that by their monied nature hold so much power. They have been radicalized by the Party and the people who say time and time again that they are the true defenders of Freedom.
Sadly, it is this same Republican Party that fell into believing their own fantasy, allowing themselves to become fully radicalized and perverted by the extreme Right, and they don’t see it. Sadly, it is this very radicalization that will continue to stoke the flames of civil discord, that without undoing and reversing will lead to Civil War. Sadly, I fear that the Republican Party is too far gone, that the once Grand Old Party has been eaten away, subsumed and replaced by a doppelgänger of evil intent. I fear that the end goal of the Republican Party and its supporters view Trump, Trumpism and the MAGA coalition as a means to an end. The end of these 50 United States.
